Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 12.412093 13.964020 15.719155 17.868899 20.455601 23.499859 27.402241
2025-05-11 10.571100 12.573959 15.031106 18.329724 22.742931 28.600403 37.251770
2025-05-18 9.251746 11.388329 14.147031 18.079934 23.739886 31.938548 45.461473
2025-05-25 8.320079 10.511732 13.455318 17.857043 24.583476 35.086956 54.241351
2025-06-01 7.650087 9.877896 12.971461 17.792879 25.566144 38.579787 64.760464
2025-06-08 6.995369 9.183664 12.301365 17.320965 25.770775 40.762169 73.627493
2025-06-15 6.563848 8.757915 11.963855 17.296475 26.679482 44.380074 87.065750
2025-06-22 6.017468 8.114622 11.230509 16.527710 26.134475 45.054574 93.982876
2025-06-29 5.526017 7.515445 10.511180 15.695224 25.333916 45.016967 99.109852
2025-07-06 5.155032 7.071928 9.998405 15.156424 25.000668 45.897411 107.321465
2025-07-13 5.272786 7.381344 10.706297 16.829856 29.289464 58.468969 161.369428
2025-07-20 5.158806 7.316775 10.792176 17.382476 31.391386 66.582377 209.530666
2025-07-27 4.835118 6.906891 10.282421 16.788300 30.965004 68.064242 232.552526
2025-08-03 4.706957 6.806355 10.295698 17.213588 32.963487 77.365136 310.795969
2025-08-10 4.489076 6.542724 10.000538 16.984662 33.360107 81.970452 372.313165
2025-08-17 4.294155 6.305230 9.733041 16.780467 33.781490 86.903818 450.313678
2025-08-24 4.136039 6.120191 9.545697 16.721666 34.569745 93.583554 568.106148
2025-08-31 3.939801 5.859300 9.201105 16.288966 34.282020 96.127751 656.338000
2025-09-07 3.811914 5.709294 9.051765 16.266499 35.126768 103.756801 855.118569
2025-09-14 3.606607 5.415005 8.613771 15.560707 33.909624 102.061709 904.582497
2025-09-21 3.406292 5.121831 8.163888 14.795156 32.421376 98.722047 916.449791
2025-09-28 3.250862 4.901720 7.842757 14.298963 31.666319 98.589498 1003.153945
2025-10-05 3.343832 5.123807 8.382292 15.838233 37.396699 134.149896 2772.348676